Big 12 basketball preview: New-look league, same old preseason favorite (Kansas)

For the first time since the inaugural Big 12 media poll in 2019, voters have a unanimous pick for league champion. That year it was Kansas. This year, spoiler alert, it’s (preseason No. 1) Kansas.

While KU has dominated the league, the race has been closer in recent years. The 2018-19 Jayhawks, also a preseason No. 1, ended Bill Self’s streak of 14 straight years winning at least a share of the Big 12 title. Kansas has won three of the last four since the run ended, but Baylor also has two conference titles during that stretch — one it shared with KU — and last season the Jayhawks won the league by one game over Texas. We media members dared to pick a champ that wasn’t KU. Self took that personally.

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All right, enough history.

This feels like an entirely new league. What hasn’t changed is the Big 12 is still projected to be the best conference in America. KenPom has all 14 teams in the top 72 in his preseason ratings. Historically, somewhere around 45th is where the bubble starts in those ratings; the Big 12 has 11 teams in the top 53.

A reminder of how this works and an introduction for the newbies: The Big 12 doesn’t compile a media poll — only a coaches’ poll — so I built my own. This year we had a record 30 voters, who are listed at the bottom. Give them a follow. And enjoy this strange new world that will change again next year — and then maybe again after that. (We’re waiting, Gonzaga.)

The Big 12 media poll

Predicted order of finish

— * unanimous

Player of the year

Hunter Dickinson, Kansas (26)

Also receiving votes: Max Abmas, Texas (1); LJ Cryer, Houston (1); Dajuan Harris, Kansas (1); RayJ Dennis, Baylor (1)

Newcomer of the year

Dickinson (18)

Also receiving votes: Ja’Kobe Walter (5); Abmas (3); Tylor Perry, Kansas State (2); Dennis (1); Omaha Biliew, Iowa State (1)

Breakout star

Jalen Bridges, Baylor (6)

Also receiving votes: Milos Uzan, Oklahoma (5); Dylan Disu, Texas (3); Pop Isaacs, Texas Tech (2); Cam Carter, Kansas State (2); Ernest Udeh Jr., TCU (2); Dillon Mitchell, Texas (2); Kevin McCullar Jr., Kansas (1); KJ Adams, Kansas (1); Emanuel Miller, TCU (1); Nae’Qwan Tomlin, Kansas State (1); Tyrese Hunter, Texas (1); Jamal Shead, Houston (1); Viktor Lahkin, Cincinnati (1); CJ Fredrick, Cincinnati (1)

Sleeper team

TCU and Texas Tech (7)

Also receiving votes: Iowa State (6); West Virginia (4); Kansas State (2); Oklahoma State (2); Oklahoma (1); Cincinnati (1)

First team All-Big 12

Second team All-Big 12

Also receiving votes: Walter (5); Bridges (4); Disu, Texas (3); Arthur Kaluma, Kansas State (3); Dennis (1); Jameer Nelson Jr., TCU (1); Isaacs (1); Uzan, (1); Mitchell (1)

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My preseason predictions

1. Kansas

High position: 1

Low position: 1

Using KenPom’s experience metric, which dates back to 2006-07, Self’s oldest team was the 2008 national champs, who entered with a combined 208 career starts. The projected starting lineup for these Jayhawks has a combined 284 career starts. And that’s not including likely top reserve Nick Timberlake, who has started 90 career games.

During an August trip to Puerto Rico, the Jayhawks looked like they’d been playing together for years. The ball moved. The players played off each other like they knew each other’s tendencies. It’s always possible a highly-rated team doesn’t live up to the hype — see 2022-23 North Carolina — but it’s hard to hard to envision a scenario where this team doesn’t win a lot of games.. Depth, shooting and Dickinson’s defense are the only real concerns. Self always prefers to play seven or eight, so the only way depth is an issue is if there are injuries. KenPom projects KU to be the best defensive team in the country. As for the shooting, the last time Self had a team that didn’t shoot it great but boasted a dominant back-to-the-basket player was 2020. That team finished eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency and was the best team in college basketball.

2. Baylor

High position: 2

Low position: 5

Last season was the first since 2009 that Baylor’s defense finished outside of the top 100. Since Scott Drew adopted the no-middle, the Bears had gone fourth, 22nd and 13th in adjusted defense. So we’re gonna call the 107th-place finish an outlier. Drew addressed that by getting bigger on the perimeter and landing a rim protector. Freshman Yves Missi, a 7-footer, looked like he could be one of the best defensive bigs in the country during Baylor’s overseas trip. There’s also excitement around freshman wing Ja’Kobe Walter and transfer point guard RayJ Dennis. In a down year, Baylor finished third in the Big 12 and had a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It’s not quite Self consistency, but Drew is the next-best bet in the Big 12. He’s finished in the top two in three of the last four seasons. I’ll bet on four of five.

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3. Houston

High position: 2

Low position: 4

Kelvin Sampson deserves the same kind of respect as Self and Drew. His consistency is wild, especially considering he’s doing it at a school that was stuck in mediocrity. The Cougars have made it to at least the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for three straight years and finished ranked in the KenPom top five in each of those seasons. It’s going to be an adjustment no longer spending January, February and early March beating up the AAC, and Sampson has never had to replace two first-round NBA Draft picks, but the roster is still strong. The Big 12 is about to find out Jamal Shead is a brick house and one of the best leaders in college hoops. LJ Cryer, one of the Big 12’s best shooters a year ago at Baylor, joins along with another experienced bucket-getter in Temple transfer Damian Dunn. They’ll lean a lot on those three for offense with sophomore Terrance Arceneaux and Emanuel Sharp providing some scoring punch off the bench. And then Sampson has his usual army of bigs who will gobble up offensive rebounds. The formula works everywhere.

4. TCU

High position: 4

Low position: 9

Jamie Dixon used to a play a more plodding style back in his Pitt days, but no matter the pace, his teams always shared the ball and made the extra pass. It’s pleasant to watch for those of us who enjoy ball movement. Last season, the Frogs still shared the ball, but Dixon poured a couple shots of 5-hour Energy onto the attack. No one in college hoops was better at getting out in transition than the Frogs. It was an organized blitz on the defense. TCU averaged 19.9 points in transition, per Synergy, which was the third-best in college hoops and best among high-majors. The speed of Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh made it go, and they’re gone, but I’m still betting TCU will be able to thrive playing with pace because Dixon has quick guards. (Fifth-year transfer Jameer Nelson Jr. will be tasked as the engineer.) Dixon landed one of the fastest centers in the country in Kansas transfer Ernest Udeh Jr., along with one of the most athletic incoming freshmen wings in Jace Posey. TCU’s veteran core, led by Emanuel Miller, has experienced success, winning a game in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments. The next step is a winning conference record, which TCU has never done in the Big 12. This is the year.

5. Texas

High position: 2

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Low position: 6

Texas is going to try to play Dillon Mitchell at small forward, and it might be one of those situations where playing your best five players isn’t always your best lineup. Mitchell didn’t attempt a 3-pointer last season, and he’s just a far better fit in one of the two big spots. In 95 possessions that Texas played its three bigs together last season (Mitchell, Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop), the Longhorns scored just 0.86 points per possession and were outscored by 21 points per 100 possessions, per hooplens.com. Another worry for the Longhorns is Disu’s foot. Texas probably makes the Final Four last year if Disu doesn’t get injured in the Sweet 16. He was playing as well as any big man in the country. Unfortunately, there’s no timetable for his return. I’ve also got some concerns with the size of UT’s backcourt — Tyrese Hunter and Max Abmas are both 6-foot. Baylor tried a small backcourt last season and suffered defensively. Abmas is also going from a system at Oral Roberts that was ideally built for him to now playing alongside another guard who is best on the ball. That could be a delicate dance.

6. Iowa State

High position: 5

Low position: 10

Iowa State had the eighth-best defense in the country last season and was nearly three points per 100 possessions better than the next-best (Kansas) during conference season. The Cyclones are the new Texas Tech of the league. T.J. Otzelberger even adopted former Texas Tech coach Mark Adams’ side defense. You can pretty much bank on ISU having a really good defense. Offensively, the Cyclones had their struggles last season, but Otzelberger addressed that with a strong transfer class and a top-10 high school class. Five-star Omaha Biliew is the guy with all the hype, but Milan Momcilovic, a skilled stretch four, is the incoming freshman I like and am betting on being the difference-maker on the offensive end. The Cyclones also have three transfer guards — Curtis Jones, Jackson Paveletzke, Keshon Gilbert — who can shoot and score. That’s what’s needed next to sophomore Tamin Lipsey, who is a pass-first point guard and sets the tone defensively.

7. Kansas State

High position: 4

Low position: 7

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The Wildcats are living in the clouds right now. The hope is that they ride the momentum from last season right into this year, and there’s plenty to be optimistic about. Jerome Tang wants to up the tempo and is very athletic on the wing with Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Creighton transfer Arthur Kaluma. Returning guard Cam Carter is also built to play in pace, and he could be one of the league’s most improved players. Then K-State landed one of the best transfer guards in the country in Tylor Perry. The Cats have more depth than they had last year. What worries me is they were super reliant on their two stars, and the offense is going to have to be way more balanced this year. Tang is adopting a five-out look, and it could take a while to get there. It’ll be important for K-State to get off to another good start, and the nonconference is much more difficult than it was a year ago. This is one of the teams I had the toughest time placing. The range between KSU’s ceiling and floor is as wide as any team in the league.

8. Oklahoma

High position: 8

Low position: 13

A year ago, I was standing next to Porter Moser at a recruiting event. He was recruiting one of the fastest guards in the 2022 class, and he was talking about how you need speed and athleticism to win at the high-major level. Moser had one of the least athletic rosters in the conference last year, but he’s addressed that with a sneaky good transfer class and four-star freshman wing Kaden Cooper. Moser also brought back two sophomore guards, Milos Uzan and Otega Oweh, who were the best athletes on his team. Uzan is a breakout candidate and a guy NBA scouts are eying. He’ll play alongside transfer Javian McCollum, who averaged 15.9 points and 3.9 assists last season at Siena. If you’re looking for this year’s version of Kansas State, this could be the team. Oklahoma should be way more balanced than K-State was, but similar to Tang, Moser overhauled his roster.

9. Texas Tech

High position: 6

Low position: 12

The Red Raiders are another candidate to be the K-State of 2024. Grant McCasland, a fellow member of the Scott Drew coaching tree, has won everywhere he’s been. McCasland went 56-14 the last two years, following an upset of Purdue in the NCAA Tournament in 2021. His teams have been elite defensively, reaching another level since he went to study the side defense under Adams. McCasland had to remake the roster, but that’s possible to do in the transfer era. What’s important is the pieces fit the defense, whereas a year ago Adams seemed to recruit more to the offensive end with the belief he could coach his guys up defensively. Length and athleticism are important, and it appears McCasland was intentional in how he built this roster. The Red Raiders have some vets who have been on tournament teams — Arizona State transfers Devan Cambridge and Warren Washington and West Virginia transfer Joe Toussaint — and then some upside young players to build around, led by returner Pop Isaacs and Nevada transfer Darrion Williams, who was the Mountain West freshman of the year.

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10. West Virginia

High position: 7

Low position: 13

Let’s mention 2023 Kansas State one more time, shall we? West Virginia has the closest roster composition to last year’s Wildcats. West Virginia will rely a lot on Jesse Edwards, Kerr Kriisa and (possibly) RaeQuan Battle. Battle, who started his career at Washington and then spent the last two years at Montana State, had his eligibility waiver denied last week but will appeal. Battle and Edwards would ideally take most of the shots with Kriisa as the setup artist who buries the occasional dagger 3. Then the hope would be interim coach Josh Eilert can piece together lineups and get enough out of his others to be an NCAA Tournament team. The sudden loss of Bob Huggins this summer killed the depth, with Toussaint, Tre Mitchell, James Okonkwo and Jose Perez all deciding to leave. Transfer Omar Silverio also was denied a waiver to play one more season. Still, West Virginia could have one of the best trios in the country — if Battle can get eligible.

11. Cincinnati

High position: 9

Low position: 14

Speaking of waiver decisions, I’ll want a redo here if Utah Valley transfer Aziz Bandaogo wins his appeal. Bandaogo is at his third school. The NCAA is buckling down on second-time transfers, so we shall see. The 7-footer would change the calculus on this team’s defensive potential if eligible. He is one of the best rim protectors in the country. Utah Valley’s opponents shot just 39.8 percent inside the arc with Bandaogo on the floor last season, per hooplens.com. The best two-point defense in the country (Alabama) held its opponents to 40.8 percent. The Bearcats do have a really solid returning big man in Viktor Lakhin, so it’s not dire if Bandaogo is ineligible. Wes Miller also added one of my favorite portal players in Butler transfer Simas Lukosius and took a swing on former Iowa/Kentucky guard CJ Fredrick, who had his time at Kentucky derailed by injuries. Fredrick was a productive guard on good Iowa teams, and the Bearcats could use his shooting. Another player to watch: Jizzle James, son of former Colts running back Edgerrin James. We can all agree college basketball would be more fun with a star named Jizzle. This feels like a bubble team.

12. Oklahoma State

High position: 6

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Low position: 13

Mike Boynton addressed a need in the transfer portal by adding Javon Small, who averaged 15.8 points and 5.6 assists in 18 games for a mediocre East Carolina team. A year earlier, ECU’s best player was point guard Tristen Newton. He transferred to UConn and helped the Huskies win a national title. That’s probably not in the cards for the Cowboys, but it’s proof a really good player from a mediocre program can help you. The Cowboys need Small to be a difference-maker, and they need Bryce Thompson to make a leap and become a star. Thompson, the former five-star prospect who started his career at Kansas, has been a double-digit scorer the last two seasons, but he’s been inefficient and streaky. On paper, the backcourt looks pretty good, with John-Michael Wright also returning after averaging 9.8 points per game last year. The question marks are up front, where the Cowboys lost Kalib Boone and Moussa Cisse to the portal. Those losses hurt, because Boone and Cisse were big parts of making OSU’s defense elite. Boyton is betting on four four-star freshmen and a small-school transfer to replace them. The roster feels too young to win in this league.

13. BYU

High position: 8

Low position: 14

Mark Pope had a great start at BYU, but last year was a dropoff with the Cougars going 7-9 in league play. The Cougars are making a drastic step up in competition, they graduated two starters, and they join UCF as the only schools in the league that didn’t have anyone on our best transfer list. The Cougars do have a top-100 freshman in Marcus Adams Jr., but his eligibility is in question after he started the summer at Kansas and left for Gonzaga before settling on BYU. (Welcome to college basketball in 2023.) KenPom is bullish on the Cougars, ranking them 36th in the preseason. But I’m worried the talent isn’t up to Big 12 standards yet.

14. Central Florida

High position: 12

Low position: 14

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Central Florida had six players enter the transfer portal and also lost leading scorer Taylor Hendricks (a one-and-done lottery pick) and second-leading scorer C.J. Kelly (exhausted his eligibility). Darius Johnson is the only one of last year’s six top scorers returning. And that’s from a team that went 8-10 in the AAC. It’s hard to see the Knights finishing anywhere inside the top 12 in this new-look Big 12.

My preseason awards

Player of the year/Newcomer of the year: Dickinson

Breakout star: Uzan

Sleeper team: Oklahoma

First team

Second team

Our media panel

Justin Williams (Cincinnati, The Athletic)
Nathan Giese (Texas Tech, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal)
Kendall Kaut (Baylor, Sic’Em 365)
Alec Busse (Iowa State, Cyclone Alert)
Joe Brocato (West Virginia, Metro News)
Ryan Gilbert (K-State, GoPowerCat)
Chris Anderson (West Virginia, EerSports)
Henry Greenstein (Kansas, Lawrence Journal-World)
Justin Jackson (West Virginia, The Dominion Post)
Kris Gardner (Houston, The Houston Roundball Review)
Ashley Hodge (Baylor, Sic’Em 365)
Scott Springer (Cincinnati, Cincinnati Enquirer)
Kellis Robinett (Kansas State, Wichita Eagle/Kansas City Star)
Jamie Plunkett (TCU, HornedFrogBlitz)
Mitch Harper (BYU, BYU Insider)
Thomas Jones (Texas, Austin American-Statesman)
Tim Watkins (Baylor, Bears Illustrated)
Matt Murschel (UCF, Orlando Sentinel)
Kevin Reynolds (BYU, Salt Lake Tribune)
Tim Everson (Kansas State, Manhattan Mercury)
Eli Lederman (Oklahoma, Sellout Crowd)
Mason Young (Oklahoma, Tulsa World)
Joe Cook (Texas, Inside Texas)
Gary Bedore (Kansas, Kansas City Star)
Keegan Nickoson (Cincinatti, Bearcat Journal)
Jay Drew (BYU, Deseret News)
Chris Baldwin (Houston, PaperCity Magazine)
Kevin Flaherty (Big 12, 247 Sports)
Jon Walker (Oklahoma State, Stillwater News Press)

(Top photo of Dajuan Harris Jr.: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

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